Patriots See Largest Super Bowl Odds Shift During Free Agency

  • The first portion of NFL free agency has been wild, and the odds have already shifted.
  • The biggest shift comes in the form of the New England Patriots.
  • The Patriots’ odds to win Super Bowl 56 have moved from +4000 to +2200 after a bevy of signings.

LAS VEGAS - The NFL’s legal tampering period began on Monday, kicking off NFL free agency, and teams have been making big moves.

There are a couple teams that stand out in terms of how their odds have changed from before free agency to now. Let’s take a look at the big winners and losers of the first week of NFL free agency.

Odds Before Free Agency

Before the free agency period started, the Super Bowl odds were about where they were following Super Bowl 55.

NFL Odds Before Free Agency

  • Kansas City Chiefs +480
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650
  • Green Bay Packers +1100
  • Buffalo Bills +1300
  • Los Angeles Rams +1300
  • San Francisco 49ers+1500
  • Baltimore Ravens +1800
  • Cleveland Browns +2000
  • Dallas Cowboys+2500
  • Indianapolis Colts +2500
  • New Orleans Saints +2500
  • Seattle Seahawks +2500
  • Arizona Cardinals +2800
  • Miami Dolphins +3000
  • Los Angeles Chargers +3300
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +3500
  • Tennessee Titans +3500
  • New England Patriots +4000
  • Carolina Panthers +5000
  • Chicago Bears +5000
  • Las Vegas Raiders +6000
  • Minnesota Vikings +6000
  • Washington Football Team +7000
  • Atlanta Falcons +7500
  • Denver Broncos +7500
  • New York Giants +7500
  • Philadelphia Eagles +7500
  • New York Jets +10000
  • Cincinnati Bengals +12500
  • Detroit Lions +15000
  • Houston Texans +15000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +15000

The four teams at the top were the teams that made the Championship round, and below them were potential up and comers who had built through trades or returns from injury in the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

Then there were higher end playoff teams like the Ravens and Browns, before the Dallas Cowboys, benefitting from a weak division and the return of Dak Prescott, mark the beginning of unserious contenders.

Meanwhile, here’s what the odds look like now:

Super Bowl Odds Live

  • Kansas City Chiefs +550
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
  • Green Bay Packers +1200
  • Los Angeles Rams +1200
  • Baltimore Ravens +1400
  • Buffalo Bills +1400
  • San Francisco 49ers +1400
  • Cleveland Browns +2000
  • Indianapolis Colts +2000
  • New England Patriots +2200
  • Arizona Cardinals +2800
  • Dallas Cowboys +2800
  • New Orleans Saints +2800
  • Seattle Seahawks +2800
  • Los Angeles Chargers +3300
  • Miami Dolphins +3300
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +3300
  • Tennessee Titans +3300
  • Carolina Panthers +4000
  • Denver Broncos +4000
  • Chicago Bears +5000
  • Las Vegas Raiders +5000
  • Minnesota Vikings +5000
  • New York Jets +5000
  • Philadelphia Eagles +5000
  • Washington Football Team +5000
  • Atlanta Falcons +6600
  • New York Giants +6600
  • Cincinnati Bengals +10000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +10000
  • Detroit Lions +15000
  • Houston Texans +15000

The biggest odds change, by far, is the New England Patriots moving from +4000 to +2200 after a bevy of signings.

The Patriots, who play in a division with two teams that won 10+ games last year in the Dolphins and Bills, are still sitting fairly high after bringing in eight significant players in a few days.

In addition to these moves, the Pats will also see the return of defensive standout Dont’a Hightower, who opted out of the 2020 season. The Patriots made moves, and their odds got shorter, but the devil is in the details, and their moves affected other teams' odds as well.

For example, the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins both saw their odds lengthen as the Patriots’ odds increased. The Bills fell from +1100 to +1400, and the Dolphins fell from +3000 to +3300 as a division rival got stronger.

Even the top AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs, saw a minor drop in odds as they fell from +480 to +550.

The Patriots are not a cut-and-dry contender. There are still questions about Cam Newton’s QB play, and questions about how well they’ll be able to integrate all of these new players.

In addition, it’s unclear what future, if any, star CB Stephon Gilmore has with the team. Regardless, they’ve moved up into a clear contender role, with odds that put them closer to the Cleveland Browns than the Seattle Seahawks.

Nearly all the other moves can be traced to the fact that most other contenders held their status as such, and a new contender was created out of whole cloth with the Patriots’ additions.

With big free agents such as Kenny Golladay still on the board, and the potential of Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson trades looming, there could still be more surprises in store for NFL bettors.

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