SB LVII Longshot Bets: To Win The MVP And Super Bowl

  • Josh Allen has +4500 odds to win the regular season MVP and the Super Bowl.
  • No regular season MVP has won the Super Bowl since Kurt Warner in 1999.
  • These odds are very juice-heavy, as they’re effectively a parlay of Allen to win MVP (+700) and the Bills to win the Super Bowl (+600).

LAS VEGAS – As the 2022 NFL season approaches, bettors can find longshot odds on what effectively amounts to a parlay of regular season MVP winners and Super Bowl winners.

NFL 2022-2023 Season Specials

  • J. Allen Regular Season MVP And Buffalo Win The Super Bowl +4500
  • P. Mahomes Regular Season MVP And Kansas City Win The Super Bowl +8000
  • T. Brady Regular Season MVP And Tampa Bay Win The Super Bowl +6500
  • A. Rodgers Regular Season MVP And Green Bay Win The Super Bowl +10000
  • M. Stafford Regular Season MVP And LA Rams Win The Super Bowl +12500
  • J. Burrow Regular Season MVP & Bengals To Win The Super Bowl +20000

Leading the pack is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, who has +4500 odds to win the regular season MVP award as well as the Super Bowl.

Allen’s Bills are +600 to win the Super Bowl. Bovada – the online sportsbook offering this bet – does not have current MVP odds up, but Bet365 has Allen at +700 to win MVP.

Since this is effectively a +600 and +700 parlay, one would expect to see odds of about +5500 on this wager.

However, Bovada is offering only +4500 odds on Allen to win the Super Bowl and the Regular Season MVP, meaning this wager, as lopsided as it is, is poor value.

This same logic can be applied to the other players in the wager.

Player Given Odds To Win MVP + SB Odds To Win MVP (Bet365) Odds To Win Super Bowl (Bovada) What The Odds Should Be Value Lost To The Juice Juice Loss As A %
Josh Allen +4500 +700 +600 +5500 +1000 18%
Patrick Mahomes +8000 +800 +1000 +9800 +1800 18%
Tom Brady +6500 +900 +700 +7900 +1400 17%
Aaron Rodgers +10000 +900 +1000 +10900 +900 8%
Matt Stafford +12500 +1500 +1000 +17500 +5000 40%
Joe Burrow +20000 +1300 +2000 +29300 +9300 32%

This analysis tells a prospective bettor that the only one of these wagers within normal boundaries as far as the juice goes is the one on Aaron Rodgers. He has comparable odds to Patrick Mahomes in terms of the individual parts of the wager, but is getting +10000, where Mahomes is getting +8000.

MVP And Super Bowl Betting Trends

The MVP has a reputation in recent years of being a bit of a curse with regards to winning the Super Bowl.

Throughout the history of the NFL, 10 players have won the MVP and the Super Bowl in the same year.

However, the last one of these was Kurt Warner in 1999-2000. Since then, the Super Bowl and the MVP have not been reunited.

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