- The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl spread is at KC -3.
- However, late shading has the Super Bowl line looking to move to KC -2.5.
- Only three Super Bowls in NFL history have had a spread of -2.5.
- 17.5% of games since 2006 has been decided by 3 points.
TAMPA, Fla. - While the Super Bowl betting action will have the lines shifting throughout the day, early on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the favorite on the +3 line they were given.
Since the first time the Super Bowl LV spread opened, the Bucs were +3.5 and bettors instantly were finding the Kansas City Chiefs taking the action. However, come closer to kick-off and the Bucs betting faithful could move this line to 2.5 at Bovada and other Super Bowl betting sites.
While this is unlikely to occur, the possibility is still there as it could end up being a live bet that needs to be focused on instead.
Still, the importance of the number 3 in NFL sports betting cannot be understated. Winning by a field goal creates a push but no sportsbook wants to offer a Super Bowl line at 2.5 points. Losing to bettors because a team can easily cover the spread and win outright is a losing success for sportsbooks.
However, three Super Bowl spreads have hit the 2.5 mark - all coming in 2010 or sooner.
Super Bowl Spreads Of 2.5 Points
2018 SBLIII: NE -2.5 (Rams)
2013 SBLVIII: DEN -2.5 (Seahawks)
2010 SBXLV: GB -2.5 (Steelers)
The team at -2.5 covered in two of the previous Super Bowls, with the Seattle Seahawks not only covering the 2.5 points they were getting but also won 43-8.
Now, what should one do if the line drops to 2.5? Bettors should first look to shop betting lines on the Super Bowl, as taking the Bucs +3 is always better than taking the Bucs +2.5. On the flip side, the Chiefs at -3 is a terrible move knowing that -2.5 could be looming.
However, one of the biggest aspects focuses on the Bucs supporters. According to research from the mid-2010s, betting on the +2.5 spread for any NFL game returned 12.2 % on their investment. However, betting the moneyline when the spread was at +2.5, returned 16.1% over time.
In other words, if the line moves to Tampa Bay +2.5, the move is to take the Buccaneers on the moneyline.
For reference, when the spread is at 3 points, bettors taking the +3 only saw a return of investment of 5.4%. For the underdog moneyline when the spread was +3, bettors saw 7.2% growth.
While it could seem safer having those additional points, those additional odds go a long way in the long run. Be sure to monitor the most recent Super Bowl 55 spread and take action when it hits.
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Michael has been writing about sports for over a decade and his focus on NFL betting action has followed suit. As a Baltimore Ravens fan, he has been heavily invested in the AFC North since the turn of the century. When he is not writing about football, you can find him on the beach, in a casino, or at a bowling alley.