- Tom Brady has thrown for 300+ yards in 34% of his playoff games, and 4/9 Super Bowl appearances.
- Tom Brady has won three Super Bowls while passing 25+ times. Only eight total Super Bowls have been won by a player doing this.
- The team with the better regular season offense has lost the last nine Super Bowls.
LAS VEGAS - The Super Bowl is coming up on Sunday and from Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl has an astounding amount of elite talent involved in it.
Below are 13 fascinating trends for player and team prop betting in Super Bowl 55.
1) Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill account for almost half - 49% - of the Kansas City Chiefs’ touchdowns for the season.
This is one major reason why they lead the field in terms of anytime TD odds, but beyond that, it makes predicting other Chiefs TD scorers pretty murky. Determining which of Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson will see more action is a difficult task, and one perhaps best stayed away from.
2) Quarterbacks with at least 25 completions in the Super Bowl have won only eight of the 25 times it has occurred. Tom Brady accounts for three of those wins.
Notably, Mahomes accounts for another of those wins. In his one Super Bowl appearance, Mahomes completed more than 25 passes and picked up the win against the San Francisco 49ers.
This statistic might be a relic from a bygone age of the NFL - both the QBs in the Super Bowl now buck it.
3) Quarterbacks who were sacked four or more times in the Super Bowl have won only six of a possible 28 games, but both Brady and Mahomes have one of those victories.
This number is a testament to the greatness of the quarterbacks involved in this game. Getting sacked four times is game losing, unless you’re Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
4) Tom Brady has 15 playoff games in which he has thrown for 300 yards or more, which amounts to 34.1% of his playoff career.
Brady’s O/U line for passing yards is hovering in the 300-310 range, which is intriguing given the playoff sample size. He’s only gone above 300 yards in 34.1% of his games, including four of his nine Super Bowls.
5) Tom Brady has passed for over 450 yards in two Super Bowls.
Brady passed for 466 yards in the famous 28-3 game in Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons, and went for 505 yards the following year in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles.
This trend was immediately disrupted in Super Bowl LIII, as Brady passed for only 262 yards in a 13-3 victory over the LA Rams.
6) When Tom Brady completes 66% of his passes in a playoff game, he is 16-0.
It’s almost more amazing that he’s played so many playoff games that when you set restrictions on his stats he still has a full season’s worth of playoff games.
For context, Russell Wilson has played 16 playoff games in his career.
7) Tom Brady has three rushing touchdowns on the season. That’s more than any Chiefs player other than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has four.
The surprising aspect of this stat is not that Brady has three rushing touchdowns on the season, but that Edwards-Helaire, a starting running back, only has four.
This speaks to the pass first style of the Chiefs, but it also speaks to the red zone struggles they had throughout the season, wherein they only converted on 61% of their red zone possessions.
8) The team with more offensive yards per game during the regular season has lost the last 9 Super Bowls.
This is truly bizarre. Defense wins championships, but it seems hard to believe that offense actually has a negative correlation with doing so.
9) The Chiefs and the Bucs combine to have had 28 players with double digit targets in a game this season. The Buccaneers are responsible for only six of those games.
To a degree this is understandable. The Chiefs have two dominant receivers and then several second tier options. The Bucs have two or three elite targets, and Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around.
10) Travis Kelce has recorded at least 8 receptions in nine of his last 10 games.
Kelce is one of those dominant Chiefs targets, and his O/U line for the game is, of course, set at eight receptions.
Given his propensity to hit eight or more, bettors might want to massage the line downwards to seven by taking a hit on the odds.
11) Travis Kelce has scored in 10 of his last 15 games played.
Kelce has -165 odds to score a touchdown in the game, which amounts to about a 62.26% implied chance of him scoring.
If one assumes the sample size of his last 15 games is a relevant one, this could be a solid wager.
12) 37 of the 54 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 10 for sacks on the season.
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, they’d make it 38 of 55, as they had the 5th most sacks on the season with 48.
The Chiefs were nowhere close, racking up only 32 sacks on the season.
13) 10 teams have played in the Super Bowl while racking up 32 or less sacks in the season. Only four have won.
If the Chiefs manage to win this game, they will bring that number up to five of eleven teams with 32 or less sacks that have won the Super Bowl.
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Maxwell joined the BettingSuperBowl team in 2019 and is thrilled to be working for a website that so mirrors his interests. Maxwell is an avid follower of sports, a consumer of sports gambling news, and seeks to constantly better himself and his readers.