Why Is Tom Brady The Touchdown Leader Favorite With Sportsbooks?

• Tom Brady has +350 odds to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns.
• Patrick Mahomes is behind him with +400 odds.
• Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill both have +850 odds to lead the league in TD receptions this season.

LAS VEGASNFL Week 1 overreactions tend to be a tongue-in-cheek exercise but the online betting markets seem to have seriously overreacted in Week 1.

Tom Brady, QB of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is now the leading favorite on sportsbooks to pass for the most touchdowns in the NFL.

NFL Passing Touchdown Leader Odds

  • Tom Brady +350
  • Patrick Mahomes +400
  • Russell Wilson +500
  • Matthew Stafford +800
  • Dak Prescott +1000
  • Jameis Winston +1200
  • Josh Allen +1200
  • Aaron Rodgers +1500
  • Justin Herbert +1500
  • Kyler Murray +1600

The seven-time Super Bowl champ passed for four touchdowns in his opening matchup against the Dallas Cowboys and that puts him near the top of the touchdown boards in the NFL.

Behind Brady is, of course, Patrick Mahomes, who is the quarterback of one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs.

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

  • Patrick Mahomes +375
  • Dak Prescott +500
  • Tom Brady +600
  • Matthew Stafford +800
  • Josh Allen +950

Intriguingly, Mahomes is favored to pass for the most yards, but not to pass for the most touchdowns.

NFL Most Receiving TDs Odds

  • Tyreek Hill +850
  • Travis Kelce +850
  • Davante Adams +900
  • DeAndre Hopkins +950
  • Calvin Ridley +1500
  • Amari Cooper +1400

Even more unique to Mahomes is the fact that his two top receivers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, are the two players who are most favored to lead the league in receiving touchdowns.

Brady’s receiving corps, composed of Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski, do not start showing up until the +2000 odds range.

Some of this is due to the fact that the Chiefs’ offense overwhelmingly runs through Kelce and Hill, while the Bucs’ offense is a bit more spread out.

Still, it’s a bit odd that the two receiving touchdowns odds leaders are on a team where the passing touchdown odds leader is not.

Brady has led the league in passing touchdowns beforefour times, in fact. The last time he did so was in 2015 when he passed for 36 touchdowns with the New England Patriots.

Brady did pass for 40 touchdowns in 2020 with the Bucs and was only eclipsed by Aaron Rodgers, who passed for 48.

Even though Brady is an obvious contender for the award, if he is the favorite, it’s a bit off that his receivers are not higher up on the receiving TD odds boards and his yards leader odds are not ranked better either.

Brady should definitely be in the mix, but as a favorite though, he might be a poor value for sports bettors.

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