NFL Draft Odds Implications If Lions Trade Third Overall Pick

  • The Detroit Lions own the number three pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
  • They are open to trading their pick for the right offer, according to Lions General Manager Bob Quinn.
  • If the pick is traded, draft odds and mock drafts will be shaken up.

DETROIT — With the NFL Draft right around the corner, the trade rumors have started to heat up. The Detroit Lions have been linked to a couple of teams that are interested in acquiring their number three overall draft pick. But, a move that big on draft night would shake up the odds for several players and teams.

Who Is Interested?

Both the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers have been linked to rumors surrounding the third pick as both teams desperately need quarterbacks and are looking to get the upper hand on each other. The two quarterbacks that have been linked to both teams are Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.

The Dolphins and Chargers own the fifth and sixth overall selections in the draft, so if the Lions were to entertain the idea of trading with them, they would not be trading back so far. The Lions have been linked to showing interest in Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. If the Lions were to make a trade with either of these teams, Okudah might actually still be available for them to select.

The only team that could threaten the Lions in taking Okudah would be the New York Giants at the number four pick. If Okudah is taken, the Lions still have the option to select Isaiah Simmons who would be just as good for them.

“I've had a few of those conversations over the last week or so. Had a few of those conversations, honestly, as far back as the combine— And then there will be more substantive talks next week if people are interested— If I'm going to do something, I think we'll have a pretty good idea Thursday afternoon of kind of where we stand. I don't think I'm going to be making a huge decision on trading the No. 3 overall pick while I'm on the clock, while I'm virtually talking to our head coach and our other personnel,” said Bob Quinn, the Detroit Lions general manager on the possibility of trading the pick.

What Would Happen If The Pick Is Traded?

If the third overall pick is traded, not only would the top six picks in mock drafts be shaken up, but draft odds would also be changed as the different teams have different interests.

The first player’s draft odds that would take a hit would be Jeff Okudah. Okudah’s Over/Under of getting drafted is at 4.5 with the Over being favored at -125 odds and the Under at -115. If the pick is traded to either the Dolphins or Chargers, either one of these teams will almost certainly be taking a quarterback.

One factor that plays a role in Okudah going under 4.5 is the New York Giants with the fourth overall pick. The Giants are not in need of a quarterback as they have Daniel Jones and have been linked to a few other players in the draft.

If Okudah is available for them to select, they have a good chance of taking him. A factor that would push Okudah to the Over 4.5 mark would be that he does, in fact, slip to the Lions at either the fifth or sixth pick if the Giants decide to go in a different direction.

Other player’s draft odds that will be affected are both Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Both of them have an Over/Under of getting drafted at 5.5. Oddsmakers have Herbert favored of going Under at -140 while Tagovailoa is favored to go Over at -135. It is safe to say that if Miami or Los Angeles ends up with the third overall pick that one of these quarterbacks will end up going under the 5.5 mark.

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