How Much Can Bettors Trust Falcons’ Cordarrelle Patterson?

  • Cordarrelle Patterson is having a breakout season at age 30.
  • Patterson has more than 300 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns through four games.
  • He has -110 odds to rack up more than 66.5 rushing and receiving yards on Sunday.

ATLANTA - Cordarrelle Patterson has had a career that has taken him around the NFL, and has amassed a status as perhaps the best kickoff returner of all time. Despite Patterson’s obvious physical dominance, teams have struggled to get him involved in their offenses outside of returns - until the 2021 Atlanta Falcons.

With the Falcons, Patterson has blossomed into a juggernaut, racking up 119 rushing yards, 235 receiving yards and five touchdowns through four games.

Are his numbers sustainable? Do they need to be in order to make it Patterson’s odds profitable for NFL betting purposes?

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Odds

  • Over 23.5 -110
  • Under 23.5 -120

Patterson has averaged 29.75 rushing yards per game, but they’ve come in spurts - two games account for more than 66% of his rushing yards. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants, Patterson put up 11 and 20 rushing yards respectively.

His amount of rushing touches has remained mostly static. He’s seen seven touches in three games (including the two against the Bucs and Giants), and six touches in one game.

Snaps are an area that Patterson has struggled in - Mike Davis has out-snapped him 188-97, and Patterson’s effectiveness as a rusher has varied. That said, he does get the New York Jets as a matchup, one of the worst teams in the NFL against the run.

The Jets are 22nd in run defense, allowing 127.2 rush yards per game, although they allow only 4.1 rush yards per attempt, which is 12th in the league.

Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving Yards Odds

  • Over 37.5 -120
  • Under 37.5 -110

It’s as a receiver that Patterson has done the most damage this season, as his four receiving touchdowns and 235 receiving yards show.

Patterson is averaging well over 37.5 receiving yards per game on the season, and has only missed that number one time - Week 1. In that game, Patterson saw only two targets, which seems unlikely going forward, as he’s seen 5 or more targets in the three games since.

Cordarrelle Patterson Rush+Rec Yards Odds

  • Over 66.5 -110
  • Under 66.5 -120

The fundamental truth of Cordarrelle Patterson is that he’s a versatile threat for this Atlanta Falcons team, and should be taken seriously as both a runner and a receiver.

It’s worth noting that his Rush+Rec yards prop is out of whack with the individual rushing and receiving yards prop odds that he has. 37.5 receiving yards plus 23.5 rush yards equals 61 overall yards, yet the combined yards prop is set at 66.5.

This presents a slight middling opportunity and casts the sportsbooks’ view of Cordarrelle Patterson into sharp relief.

The problem here is that if Patterson manages to perform at the level he has throughout the season, he’ll likely smash all of these props. If he regresses a bit - as would be expected of a 30 year old RB who’s never broken out like this before - they’re all in very much play as well.

In the second situation, middling might be more justifiable, but for now, it’s hard for NFL betting fans to gauge how productive Patterson will be.

Patterson and the Falcons take on the New York Jets at 9:30 a.m. EST on Sunday, in the NFL's first London game of the year.

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