- Underdogs are 85-63-1 ATS in the 2021 season, profitable for about 14 units.
- Betting every single underdog on the moneyline would return 22.2 units this year.
- Underdogs have been performing particularly well in primetime games, covering 14 of the last 18 spreads.
LAS VEGAS – It always seems easier to bet on the favorite to cover the spread against lesser teams, but the gap between teams at the NFL level is often closer than even the sportsbooks think.
Betting On Underdogs Against The Spread
Underdogs have been performing at a high rate this season, covering the spread in 57.4% of games this year for an overall record of 85-63-1 ATS. NFL betting sites would have to dish out $1,388.60 to every person that placed a $100 bet on every underdog this season, returning 13.9 units overall.
This trend has even kicked up more as of late as underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 10, 9-3 ATS in Week 9 and 10-4-1 ATS in Week 8. Combined, that makes underdogs 28-12-1 ATS (68.3%) over the last three weeks of the NFL season.
Betting On Underdogs On The Moneyline
Betting underdogs to win straight up is thought to be the riskier play, but those who have taken the risk have found themselves with a bigger reward in 2021. Although underdogs are just 55-88 SU on the season, the profit of betting $100 on every underdog would be $2,220 for a total of +22.2 units.
It should be noted that the Jacksonville Jaguars win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 made up for about 33.3% of this total profit (+750).
Bettors who have bet on underdogs both against the spread and on the moneyline would be up $3,608.60 on $100 bets (+36.1 units).
Betting On Underdogs In Primetime
Those familiar with betting on the NFL may have noticed that teams have been underperforming in primetime games, leaving the door open for underdogs to see success. Between the Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night games, underdogs have covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 games.
However, it’s not just a recent phenomenon. Underdogs have been performing well in primetime all season long with a 20-10 ATS record overall this year.
NFL Week 11 Primetime Underdogs Odds
- TNF Falcons +7.0 vs. Patriots -110
- SNF Steelers +6.0 @ Chargers -110
- MNF Giants +11.0 @ Buccaneers -110
Whether it’s smart to blindly follow trends is up for debate, but blindly following the aforementioned ones would result in a serious payday for NFL bettors.
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Nick is a football fanatic with years of sports journalism experience. He achieved a degree in Broadcast/Journalism from Penn State University. When he’s not covering the latest NFL odds you can catch him debating Brady > Belichick in his free time.