- The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Buffalo Bills to make it to SB 55.
- The Chiefs are favored in their Super Bowl odds against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Tom Brady.
- The Bucs will need to get pressure with four rushers instead of blitzing if they want to win.
LAS VEGAS - The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl, where they will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Chiefs are favored in the matchup after a 38-24 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game. However, it’s more than that - the Chiefs would likely be favored in a matchup against anyone at this point.
Patrick Mahomes is looking to take the crown from Tom Brady, while Brady once again looks to defy age and expectations.
Let’s look at the matchup and some of the potential turning points in this game.
Super Bowl 55 Odds
Super Bowl 55 Spread
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (EVEN)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-120)
The spread betting odds seem to be hovering in the KC -3.5 range, with some potential for the line to move in either direction.
Super Bowl 55 Moneyline
- Kansas City Chiefs -165
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +145
Moneyline bettors will be treated to a Chiefs team that is -165 favorites overall, while the Bucs are +145 underdogs.
Many bettors are familiar with the quarterbacks involved in this game, and to a degree, they will dominate the discussion, but the Buccaneers defense might be the biggest question for Super Bowl bettors.
The Over/Under line for this matchup is set at 56.0 points, and that may seem like a lot at first glance.
However, there’s one very important question that O/U bettors need to be asking - and that line might not be high enough depending on the answer.
Can The Bucs Defense Stop Mahomes?
The big question for the Buccaneers is how they will contend with Mahomes, who was able to pick apart a very good Buffalo defense.
If Buffalo, who perhaps had the best defensive personnel of the remaining four teams, couldn’t handle Mahomes, can Tampa?
Stylistically, it seems like a potentially poor matchup for their defense. Tampa’s defensive prowess is concentrated in their pass rush.
However, Mahomes is an elite quarterback under pressure, and he gets even better when teams blitz him.
Per NextGen Stats, Mahomes posts a higher QBR against five or more rushers than he does against four.
In addition, this is not because the pressure doesn’t get to him - it does - but because he is perhaps the best QB in the league at dealing with it.
In other words, the Bucs front four absolutely needs to get pressure on their own, without help from blitzers.
This is a problem - the Bucs defense is built around the blitz. They blitzed on 39% of plays over the course of the season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
This ability to bring pressure was the key to defeating Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, but in this matchup, their greatest strength could be their greatest weakness.
The Tampa Bay defense has one potential serious edge here: Chiefs LT Eric Fisher will miss the Super Bowl after tearing his ACL in the waning minutes of the AFC Championship game.
Fisher joins Mitchell Schwartz on injured reserve, and both of them are huge losses that will be felt in the Super Bowl.
Without those two on the field, the Bucs have a decent chance of getting to Mahomes without committing the extra rushers they are so known for.
They’ll need to.
Betting On The Over/Under Line In SB 55
With this in mind, the Over/Under line for total points is set at 56.0 at the moment, while the Chiefs individual O/U is set at 30.0 points.
A total of 30 points is a bit much, but the game script suggests that the Chiefs will likely be able to score unless the Bucs can get pressure with four rushers.
If the Chiefs start scoring, the Bucs will be forced to step on the gas and start opening up deep routes to Scotty Miller, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
This could mean that the overall Over is a good play at the moment, although it is, of course, subject to change.
With so much at stake, it seems as though the Super Bowl might come down to a simple four vs. four matchup at the point of attack - the Bucs D line against the Chiefs O line.
Bettors should make sure to take note of that matchup both before the game and as the game unfolds - if the Bucs are unable to get pressure with four rushers, the Chiefs might be a good play on the live lines during the game.
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Maxwell joined the BettingSuperBowl team in 2019 and is thrilled to be working for a website that so mirrors his interests. Maxwell is an avid follower of sports, a consumer of sports gambling news, and seeks to constantly better himself and his readers.