- Betting on the Super Bowl via power rankings may not be the best way to find values, but it greatly simplifies the process.
- The most undervalued teams according to power rankings are the: Cleveland Browns(+2800), Detroit Lions(+15000), Houston Texans(+25000), Los Angeles Rams(+1100), and Cincinnati Bengals(+2200)
- Many of the most overvalued teams in the league are non-contenders, but the teams that stick out are the Indianapolis Colts(+2200), Green Bay Packers(+1000), Dallas Cowboys(+1800), and San Francisco 49ers(+1600).
NEW YORK – Betting on the best team in the NFL to win the Super Bowl is a simple idea that removes variable factors such as divisions, injuries, and suspensions. It simplifies the process, while also ignoring the concept that the best team in the NFL wins the Super Bowl less often than the best teams of other American sports leagues because of the single-elimination aspect of their playoffs.
Case in point: the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007 losing to the 10-6 New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
That upset potential is why betting on the preseason Super Bowl odds provides such large payouts, even on the favorites.
Comparing Pro Football Focus’s power rankings provides an interesting look at the teams that may be over and undervalued heading into next season. The best five teams according to PFF’s Rankings and their odds to win Super Bowl 57 are:
- 1. Buffalo Bills (+600)
- 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700)
- 3. Los Angeles Rams (+1100)
- 4. Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)
- 5. Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)
Best Super Bowl Betting Values Based On Power Rankings
Pro Football Focus’s rankings do not line up exactly with who NFL sportsbooks deem to be the favorites. In fact, only four teams rank the same on PFF as they do when ranking each of their odds: the Buffalo Bills(first), Tampa Bay Buccaneers(second), Denver Broncos(seventh), and the Philadelphia Eagles(13th).
That lack of consensus provides some interesting betting values for next year’s Super Bowl. The teams with the largest difference between their odds ranking and PFF ranking are shown below.
|Team||PFF Ranking||Odds Rank||SB57 Odds||Value (Odds-PFF)|
The Brown’s Super Bowl odds are in flux due to the Deshaun Watson situation, but the Detroit Lions’ and Houston Texans’ odds are somewhat interesting.
Last season the Cincinnati Bengals with their +15000 odds had the third-worst odds to win the Super Bowl in the entire NFL, but still managed to make it to the big game. That may prove that teams such as the Lions and Texans have a chance, especially considering their rosters do not rate as poorly as their Super Bowl odds suggest.
It was also very intriguing to see both of last season’s Super Bowl participants get so much apparent disrespect from online sportsbooks. Pro Football Focus ranks them both two spots higher than oddsmakers, which may make them value plays once again this season.
Buyer Beware For Perceived NFC Contenders (And The Colts)
Listing off teams that are the worst values effectively shows that there are some disagreements over the exact order of the worst teams in the league, but there are four teams with odds that rank inside the nine shortest that stand out:
- Indianapolis Colts(+2200): After a trade for Matt Ryan in the offseason sportsbooks see the Colts as a significantly better team than PFF. The Colts project to be the most overrated team in the league with oddsmakers ranking them five spots higher than PFF.
- Green Bay Packers(+1000): The team with the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl ranks as the sixth-best team in the league according to PFF. This may be a case of sportsbooks adjusting lines based on the amount bet versus the team’s actual ability.
- Dallas Cowboys(+1800): Annually one of the most bet-on teams to win the Super Bowl, it appears that sportsbooks may be taking advantage of bettors once again. The Cowboys have the ninth shortest odds in the league, but rank as the 12th best team.
- San Francisco 49ers(+1600): With their quarterback situation seemingly up in the air it may not be surprising to see the difference in Super Bowl odds (9th) and rankings (7th) paint the 49ers to be slightly overrated by online sportsbooks.
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Brett has been writing professionally since November of 2021. He had such a passion for sports he even decided to major in Sport Management from Florida State University! When not writing about sports, Brett loves playing DFS, bowling, and golfing.