- Dak Prescott now has +550 odds as the third choice to win MVP.
- Derrick Henry is the only non-quarterback with odds shorter than +10000.
DALLAS – Dak Prescott and Derrick Henry have become two players among the favorites to win the coveted NFL MVP award. However, neither may be worth betting on yet.
2021-2022 NFL MVP Odds
- Kyler Murray +350
- Josh Allen +400
- Dak Prescott +550
- Tom Brady +600
- Matthew Stafford +800
- Lamar Jackson +1000
- Aaron Rodgers +1200
- Derrick Henry +1400
- Justin Herbert +1400
- Patrick Mahomes +1400
Dak Prescott As The Third Choice (+550)
NFL betting sites have made Dak Prescott the third choice on the MVP odds board after Week 6. However, there’s fair reason to believe he’s being overvalued at this point in the season.
Prescott is fifth in passing yards, tied for third in passing touchdowns, and is fourth in passer rating. Compared to Tom Brady, who’s at +600 in odds, he doesn’t seem like a good value bet. Brady is leading the NFL in passing yards, is second in touchdowns, and has the fifth-best passer rating in the league.
Brady also has an easier remaining strength of schedule than Prescott. Not only does Prescott have worse numbers than someone below him in odds, but that same player has an easier schedule for the rest of the season.
Can Derrick Henry Win MVP As A Running Back?
The NFL MVP award almost always goes to a quarterback. A QB has won the award in 13 of the last 14 seasons including in each of the past eight years. In the past 21 seasons, every running back that has won the MVP has had a historic season.
Adrian Peterson was just eight yards short of the NFL rushing record in 2012, LaDainian Tomlinson set the single-season rushing touchdowns record in 2006 and Shaun Alexander tied the rushing touchdowns record in 2005.
Derrick Henry is on pace for 2,218 rushing yards this season but may need the NFL’s new 17th game to reach the record-breaking mark. If there was no extra game this season, Henry would fall about 17 yards short of the record.
It’s anybody’s guess as to how voters will value a record set due to needing an extra game, but Eric Dickerson didn’t win MVP when setting the all-time single-season rushing record, potentially due to the previous record-holder, O.J. Simpson, setting the record in 14 games as opposed to 16.
Simply put, those betting on the NFL should avoid betting on running backs to win the MVP award as there are too many question marks around it.
Nick is a football fanatic with years of sports journalism experience. He achieved a degree in Broadcast/Journalism from Penn State University. When he’s not covering the latest NFL odds you can catch him debating Brady > Belichick in his free time.