- In divisional games after Week 10, the UNDER is hitting at a 61% clip since 2005.
- The total record is 216-138 includes a 3-1 record from Week 11.
- There are five divisional games in Week 12 that this trend applies to.
LAS VEGAS – Sportsbooks are seemingly unable to adjust to divisional games past Week 10 as the UNDER has been hitting at a significantly higher rate than normal.
What Is The Trend? Why Is It Happening?
The UNDER has hit in 61% of divisional games after Week 10 since 2005. NFL betting sites have seemingly been unable to adjust over the last 15+ years, as a 216-138 record for anything in sports betting is a bit of an outlier.
The trend got off to a hot start in the 2021 season, going 3-1 in Week 11 as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings were the only divisional game to hit the OVER. It makes sense that the UNDER would start to become more common, but why haven’t sportsbooks been able to adjust to it?
By the time Week 10 rolls around, most divisional opponents have played each other once already. This gives the defense game film and first-hand experience on the tendencies and strategies of the offense.
Plus, as the season goes on, more and more injuries are bound to pop up. While injuries have an impact on both sides of the ball, considering defenses already prevent points on over 65% of their drives, their advantage only gets bigger with injuries on the other side of the ball.
Applying The Trend To Week 12
After starting off hot in Week 11, there are five more opportunities for the trend to build in Week 12 as there are a handful of divisional games. It starts on Thursday with the first Thanksgiving game of the day.
Bears vs Lions Total Odds
- OVER 41.5 -110
- UNDER 41.5 -110
The 1 p.m. EST slate on Sunday has two divisional games where the UNDER may be in play - one of which is in the AFC North.
Steelers vs Bengals Total Odds
- OVER 45.5 -110
- UNDER 45.5 -110
The other coming in the NFC East.
Eagles vs Giants Total Odds
- OVER 46.5 -110
- UNDER 46.5 -110
Following the 1 p.m. games, the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos will kick off at 4:05 p.m. EST to start the late slate.
Chargers vs Broncos Total Odds
- OVER 47.0 -110
- UNDER 47.0 -110
Finally, the last game in which football betting fans can see this trend in action for the Sunday Night Football game between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens.
Browns vs Ravens Total Odds
- OVER 46.0 -110
- UNDER 46.0 -110
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Nick is a football fanatic with years of sports journalism experience. He achieved a degree in Broadcast/Journalism from Penn State University. When he’s not covering the latest NFL odds you can catch him debating Brady > Belichick in his free time.