- Dak Prescott re-signed with the Dallas Cowboys on a deal worth up to $160 million.
- Prescott passed for over 1800 yards in five games in 2020.
- The odds for the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl were roughly unchanged.
LAS VEGAS - Quarterback Dak Prescott signed a new deal with the Dallas Cowboys worth up to $160 million.
Prescott was injured early in the 2020 season, but performed to the highest level of his career individually before his injury.
The sportsbooks have responded to the move with an overwhelming “meh”.
On Bovada, for example, the Cowboys had +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl before they signed Dak’s contract, and now that they have, they boast…+3000 odds to win the Super Bowl. On several other sportsbooks, there were notable changes in the lines, although they were fairly minimal.
For example, on FanDuel’s sportsbook, the odds moved from +3300 after the Super Bowl to +2900 after the Dak contract news.
So, what does it mean that the sportsbooks aren’t changing the Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds?
Scenario 1: The Sportsbooks Expected Dak To Re-Sign
In this scenario, the sportsbooks assumed that Dak would re-sign with the Cowboys, and the announcement of this happening didn’t change their estimation of the team. This seems eminently possible, as both Dak and the Cowboys wanted to get a deal done to keep him in Dallas.
Scenario 2: Dak Isn’t Good Enough To Move The Odds
This is a reasonable scenario, as Dak was incredible throughout the early part of the 2020 season, but the Cowboys still struggled to win games.
Prescott started five games in 2020, and put up 1856 passing yards in those five games to go along with nine touchdowns. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, and had a completion percentage of 68%, both career highs.
Despite his herculean statistical performances, the Cowboys only went 2-3 in the five games Dak played. He clearly took a leap as a player, but remained unable to single handedly drive his team to victory.
Scenario 3: Nobody In The NFC East Has A Shot At The Super Bowl
The fact that the Cowboys went 2-3 with Prescott playing the best football of his life is concerning. The fact that they did so in the NFC East is downright horrifying.
The NFC East in 2020 was one of the worst divisions in the history of the NFL, and the Cowboys, with a truly elite QB under center, were unable to go .500 in the games he played.
The 2021 NFL season is expected to be more of the same, but the return of Prescott should put the Cowboys in the driver’s seat for the division.
NFC East 2021 Winner
- Dallas Cowboys -105
- Washington Football Team +300
- Philadelphia Eagles +440
- New York Giants +500
Scenario 4: All Of The Above
It seems likely that aspects of all of these scenarios played into why the Cowboys’ odds didn’t move much after the Prescott signing.
The sportsbooks seemed to have already assumed that it would happen, and even with Prescott, they struggled in the worst division in football in 2020.
With Prescott coming back from injury, it’s hard to know if he’ll be the same player he was in 2020, and it’s even harder to know if the Cowboys will manage to put a good team around him.
NFL bettors will have to think long and hard before wagering on the Cowboys this offseason.
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Maxwell joined the BettingSuperBowl team in 2019 and is thrilled to be working for a website that so mirrors his interests. Maxwell is an avid follower of sports, a consumer of sports gambling news, and seeks to constantly better himself and his readers.