- The Dallas Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- The Bucs have -105 odds to cover a +2.5-point spread.
- The Buccaneers have the worst record ATS this season (4-12-1).
TAMPA, Fla. – The final game of the Wild Card Round will be Monday Night Football where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys as a 2.5-point underdog. The week 1 rematch will decide who keeps their Super Bowl hopes alive.
Much has changed since their week 1 matchup in AT&T Stadium where the Cowboys fell to the Bucs 19-3.
The Bucs have been historically bad ATS. A league worst 4-12-1 ATS is just below the team who secured the #1 pick in the 2023 Draft, the Chicago Bears (5-11-1 ATS).
Cowboys Odds To Win, First Since 2018
The biggest key for Dallas (-140) to win this game is to win the turnover battle.
The Cowboys defense leads the league in takeaways this season with 33. This is courtesy of their prolific pass rush which features the dynamic Micah Parsons. Parsons leads a group who have generated pressure on a league-best 43.7% of opponent passing plays, according to TruMedia.
Micah Parsons sacked Tom Brady twice in their Week 1 matchup and is -104 to record Over 0.5 sacks on Monday Night.
Perhaps even more important than taking the ball away, the Cowboys can’t afford to give up turnovers like they have in the regular season. Since Week 12, Dak Prescott is averaging 1.57 interceptions a game, including four games with two interceptions across that span. Prescott’s Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions is set at -179 on Bovada Sportsbook.
Despite their generosity with turnovers, the Cowboys boast a 12-4 record thanks to their high-powered offense. Ranked 4th in the league in scoring this season with 27.5 ppg, the Cowboys have beaten their opponents by an average of 14.9 points across their 12 wins.
This is bad news for Tampa Bay, who have only scored 25 or more points twice this season. Also, the Buccaneers are only the sixth team in the history of the league – the first since the Washington Commanders in 2020, who the Bucs beat in their Super Bowl run - to make the post season.
If the Cowboys can score 25+ like they have 10 times this season, betting trends suggest they will cover -2.5.
Micah Parsons to sack Tom Brady (-104 odds)
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Zach is currently a student enrolled at Florida State University. He is majoring in Writing, Editing, and Media with a minor in Communication. He has a passion for sports writing and most enjoys writing about football and baseball both professional and collegiate. During his free time, you can find playing team sports, watching games, or playing DFS. Still searching for his first Fantasy Football Championship, he has been the runner-up four years in a row.