- There are +110 odds for the Falcons to cover -3 points in the first half over the Carolina Panthers.
- The Falcons have +350 odds to lead by 1-6 points in the first quarter.
- The Panthers have +100 odds on the fourth quarter moneyline.
CHARLOTTE – The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will meet on Thursday Night Football for the second time this season in an NFC South matchup where the Falcons are 3-point favorites to win the game. Although the Falcons are slight favorites on the normal gamelines, there is some tremendous value to be made betting on the alternate and quarter lines.
First Half Lines
Atlanta Falcons Alternate 1st Half Spread
- Falcons -3 +110
Starting with the first half, NFL oddsmakers have given the Falcons plus money to cover just three points in the first half over the Panthers and all signs are pointing towards them covering this without any issues. Starting with each of their offenses performances per first half, Atlanta is outscoring Carolina by a large margin in first-half points per game putting up 12 points per first half to Carolina’s 7.3. An even stronger indication of this is that in the last three games, the Falcons have been outscoring the Panthers by a whole 8 points compared to the 4.7 average.
Time of possession also comes into play here and the Falcons rule that category as well. In the first half, they usually control the possession arrow by 51.7% to the Panthers 44.8%. In their last three games though, those possession numbers for the Falcons have gone up even more to 54.4% while the Panthers are dead last in the league in their last three games at just 39%.
Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers Quarter Lines
Falcons Lead By 1-6 Points After 1Q
- Yes +350
Surprisingly enough Falcons oddsmakers are giving bettors a chance to 3.5x their unit on the Falcons to lead by 1-6 points at the end of the first quarter when they are already just a 0.5-point favorite in the quarter, to begin with. The Falcons are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league in the first quarter at 5.2 points per opening quarter while Carolina scored 3.8 points less in opening quarters at just 1.4 points on average.
For those that are worried though that the Falcons could run away in the first quarter by more than six points shouldn’t sweat as the Panthers have the third-best first-quarter defense in the league. They are allowing just 2.2 points per first quarter and just 1 point per first quarter in their last three games.
Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers 2Q Total
- Over 13 -115
- Under 13 -115
13 points is tied for the highest set total of all four quarters in the game on Bovada and there is reason to believe that both teams are trending towards staying under. As it is, both teams combined second-quarter offense doesn’t even go over 13 points as they sit just under at 12.7 points per second quarter. Atlanta is averaging 6.8 points while Carolina is at 5.9.
Feeding into both teams playing poorly in the second quarter, their possession percentages each sit under 50%. Carolina is a 46.6% possession rate while Atlanta is at 45.3%. Each of them are also coming off of arguably their worst second-quarter performances of the season where the Falcons had just 28.2% of possessions in the second quarter while Carolina wasn’t much better at 33.4%.
Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers 3Q Spread
- Falcons -0.5 +120
- Panthers -0.5 -160
Sticking with the Falcons keeping control to start off the second half, although they are averaging just 5 points per third quarter on the season, in four of their last seven games, they’ve been able to score 7+ points in the third quarter including a 13-point third quarter outing against the Panthers in Week 8.
The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, are averaging just 3.7 points in the third quarter this season and 3.2 points when playing at home. The possession arrow in the third quarter is also heavily on the Falcons over the Panthers as Atlanta is holding possession in the third quarter at a 51.6% rate and are coming off of a 73% third-quarter outing.
Carolina is dead last in the league at a 35.3% third-quarter possession rate. In their last four games, the Panthers have scored just 10 total points averaging just 2.5 points in the third quarter across those games.
Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers 4Q Moneyline
- Falcons -130
- Panthers +100
In shocking fashion, although the Falcons are favored and all trends have pointed towards them coming out on top in the game, the real value lies on the Panthers ML in the fourth quarter. This comes as the Falcons will likely have the lead going into the final quarter and coast to the final whistle.
Looking at the numbers, Carolina is the third-highest scoring fourth-quarter team this season at 8.9 points and are averaging 14 fourth-quarter points in their last three games. As for Atlanta, they slow down tremendously compared to other quarters at 6.8 points per final quarter and 4.3 in their last three games.
The gap in possession percentage in the fourth quarter is also massive with Carolina holding possession 58.4% of the time over their last three games compared to Atlanta’s 34.5% which ranks last in the NFL.
Total First Half Points To Go Over 23 Points?
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Samuel has been writing professionally for 4 years. He comes from a sports writing background where he enjoys writing mostly about basketball and football both professional and collegiate. He is a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in Editing, Writing and Media with a minor in Communications. During his free time, you can find him watching or playing sports as well as playing videogames and listening to music.