2021 Fantasy Football: Rookie WR Rankings Based On Prop Bets

  • Ja’Marr Chase is projected to have the season among the rookie wide receivers.
  • DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle have similar betting odds for their season totals.
  • Kadarius Toney is behind the rest of the pack by a significant margin in both yards and touchdowns.

CINCINNATI – With fantasy football being such a prominent presence during football season, fantasy managers will do a lot to try and find potential sleepers, value picks and breakout players. Many would argue there’s not a better spot to find projections than in sportsbooks season prop totals.

The Formula and The Rankings

The season props available are limited to receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, meaning PPR (points-per-reception) leagues have another factor to implement into the rankings, but for the most part, the rankings should be similar. Another thing to note is that Bovada only has four rookie wide receiver’s props available.

This means players like Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore will not be included.

No. 1 – Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals)

Ja’Marr Chase is reunited with the quarterback who helped make him a Biletnikoff winner and is projected to carry over his dominance to the NFL level in his rookie season.

Chase’s receiving yard total is set at 1099.5, but the Under is favored by a decent margin.

Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards Odds

  • Over 1099.5 +110
  • Under 1099.5 -145

Since the Under is favored, we’ll round down and say his true season total is about 1,000 yards. Regardless, it is still the highest among rookie wide receivers. Plus, he has the highest touchdown season total as well, set at 7.5 with the Under being a slight -120 betting favorite.

This puts Chase’s entire season numbers at around 1,000 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns.

Total Standard Non-PPR Season Points: 142 Points

No. 2 – DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)

The reigning Heisman winner, DeVonta Smith, is projected to have a solid season as a rookie, but not quite at the same level as Chase. Smith’s receiving yard total is set at 749.5 with the Over being a -150 favorite. For the sake of this projection, we’ll tack on about 75 yards. His receiving touchdown total is listed with -115 odds on both sides of 5.5 for the season.

Assuming that 825 yards and either 5 or 6 touchdowns is the true projection, he ranks behind Chase by a decent margin.

Total Standard Non-PPR Season Points: 112.5-118.5 Points

No. 3 – Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)

Jaylen Waddle’s season totals are set very close to his former teammates, but the odds are hinting at slightly different results. NFL betting fans will find Waddle’s receiving yard total at 724.5 with the Over being a narrow -125 favorite and 5.5 touchdowns with, again, the Over being a slight -120 betting favorite.

We’ll call his season totals at 750 yards and 6 touchdowns, putting him just below Smith in his season projections. However, in PPR formats, he could prove more valuable.

Total Standard Non-PPR Season Points: 111 Points

No. 4 – Kadarius Toney (New York Giants)

Kadarius Toney is the final rookie receiver with available betting props. However, he is projected to have a much more pedestrian season than the rest of the players on this list. He has -115 odds on both sides of his 524.5 receiving yard total but is favored with -145 odds to have more than 3.5 receiving touchdowns.

The NFL betting sites' projections slot him as a solid option in the offense, but maybe not so much as a useful option in fantasy.

Total Standard Non-PPR Season Points: 76.5

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