Stafford’s Passing Yard Range/Rush Yards Odds Are Great Bets

  • Matthew Stafford's rushing yard prop bet does not reflect his prior postseason performances.
  • The +500 odds at sportsbooks for Stafford to throw between 276 and 300 yards is not reflective of his history.

LOS ANGELES - Sportsbooks may expect Matthew Stafford to win Sunday night when he plays in the most important game of his career, but Super Bowl 56 prop bets on Matthew Stafford's performance do not reflect the importance of this game for him.

Stafford Running Wild

Matthew Stafford is a running quarterback, or even really close to it, but legal Super Bowl betting sites have put too much emphasis on Stafford's regular-season playing style over his postseason playing style.

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop

  • Over 5.5 Yards -114
  • Under 5.5 Yards -114

With rushing yardage prop bets that low, all it takes is one scramble for Stafford's rushing yards prop bets to hit. He does not have the pedigree that some Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks have, but this is not his first playoff game.

Matthew Stafford Career Rushing Stats

  • Regular Season Stafford: 182 Games, 14 Touchdowns, 6.82 Yards Per Game, 2.1 Rush Attempts Per Game
  • Playoff Stafford: 6 Games, 10 Yards Per Game, 3.5 Rush Attempts Per Game

His rush yards should not be astronomically high, but he has gone over 5.5 rushing yards in five of his six career playoff games.

Compare that to Stafford's regular-season stats and it is clear that the postseason may impact his willingness to run.

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Range Give

From a passing perspective, there is a clear value discrepancy when looking at Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage range prop bet.

Matthew Stafford - Passing Yards Range

  • Any Other +250
  • 200-225 +825
  • 226-250 +625
  • 251-275 +525
  • 276-300 +500
  • 301-325 +550
  • 326-350 +725
  • 351-375 +1050

The passing yard range that really stands out is 276-300 yard range with +500 odds. Those are the second shortest odds on the board, but they may still be too long.

So far this season, Stafford has thrown for 276-300 yards five times (25% of his games). That would typically result in odds much shorter.

Matthew Stafford's exact prop bet is also 283.5 yards, which means sportsbooks are projecting him to be in that range as well. Given his season-long history and his actual yardage over-under, there is a value at +500 for Matthew Stafford to throw for between 276 and 300 yards.


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