NFL Coach Of the Year Betting Odds Favor Nobody

  • Out of the last 11 NFL seasons, five of the coach of the year winning head coaches won the award as the first-year coach for their team.
  • An NFL coach has never won the award two years in a row, not showing much value in Mike Vrabel’s +2500 odds.
  • Looking at the past eight seasons, seven of the winning coaches improved their team’s record by at least four games.

LOS ANGELES – With the NFL season starting in September, sportsbooks do not have any favorites to win coach of the year.

Kevin O’Connell (+1200) and Brandon Staley (+1400) have the shortest odds to win the award. Staley is entering his second year as the Los Angeles Chargers’ head coach, while O’Connell is starting his first year as the Minnesota Vikings’ HC.

Coach Odds
Brandon Staley +1400
Nathaniel Hackett +1600
Mike McDaniel +1600
Josh McDaniels +1800
Zac Taylor +2000
Todd Bowles +2500
Sean McDermott +2000
Sean McVay +2000
Nick Sirianni +2000
Kevin O’Connell +1200
Kyle Shanahan +2000
Kevin Stefanski +2000
Doug Pederson +2000
Frank Reich +2000
Dan Campbell +1800
Brian Daboll +1500
Bill Belichick +2000
Ron Rivera +2500
Mike Vrabel +2500
Matt Lafleur +2500
Kliff Kingsbury +2500
John Harbaugh +2500
Andy Reid +2500
Robert Saleh +2800
Mike Tomlin +2200
Mike McCarthy +3000
Dennis Allen +2500
Matt Rhule +4000
Matt Eberflus +4000
Pete Carroll +5000
Lovie Smith +5000
Arthur Smith +5000

In the past 11 years, five of the coaches awarded coach of the year, were in their first season as the head coach of the organization. The 2022-2023 season features 10 new head coaches, and a lot of the teams have potential to significantly increase their regular season record.

Out of these 10 new coaches, only four of them are taking over teams that had a record last over a 500-winning percentage.

Teams With New Head Coaches/2021 Record

  • (Mike McDaniel) Dolphins 9-8
  • (Matt Eberflus) Bears 6-11
  • (Kevin O’Connell) Vikings 8-9
  • (Nathaniel Hackett) Broncos 7-10
  • (Doug Pederson) Jaguars 3-14
  • (Brian Daboll) Giants 4-13
  • (Josh McDaniels) Raiders 10-7
  • (Dennis Allen) Saints 9-8
  • (Lovie Smith) Texans 4-13
  • (Tod Bowles) Buccaneers 13-4

Another trend is found in the head coach improving the record of the team. Out of the last eight awards, seven of the coaches improved their team by at least four games. The most substantial turnaround was when Sean McVay led the Rams from a 4-12 record to 11-5 in his first year as head coach.

Odds For Past Wining Coaches

One last trend is that no coach has ever won the award two years in a row, showing a lack of value for last year’s winner Mike Vrabel. During the 2021 preseason, he had +3000 betting odds to win the award.

Looking at 2020, Kevin Stefanski led the Cleveland Browns from 6-10 in 2019 to an 11-4 record, in his first year with the origination, During the preseason, he had +2000 odds to win the award.

When John Harbaugh won the award in 2019, his team ended the regular season with a 14-2 record, after going a respectable 10-6 in 2018. Harbaugh had +2800 odds to win the award before the 2019 season began.




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