- The Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites and favored on Thursday's 12:30 p.m. EST game over the Detroit Lions.
- Past results and a recent injury to Josh Allen have many supporting an under bet on the first Thanksgiving game.
- Looking deeper into certain Bills betting trends shows why the over is a better bet.
DETROIT - The Buffalo Bills continue their Super Bowl goal on Thanksgiving favored by 10 points over the Detroit Lions. Still as the Super Bowl favorite (+450), the Bills will stay in Detroit to face the Lions, who are nearly out of Super Bowl contention (+25000).
Bills Lions Thanksgiving Betting Odds
- Bills Moneyline -500
- Lions Moneyline +360
- Spread Bills -10
- Over-Under 54 Points
Betting a 10-point spread is always difficult evident from the 10-12-1 ATS record for 10-point favorites since 2020. With this, handicapping the Bills and Lions over-under could be an easier play.
But betting trends can often lead someone to the wrong side. Quick research shows the betting trends for the Bills is to take the under. The under has hit in seven of the last 10 Bills games and the Lions have seen the under hit in five of the last seven games when they are underdogs by at least a touchdown at home.
So, the trends say to bet the under? But, looking deeper into every NFL betting trend flips the script.
Over-Under Betting Trends
- Trend: The over is 4-9 during games in 2022 that the Bills were the favorite.
Looking Deeper: Only five of those games saw an over-under of 50 or more. - Trend: The over has hit in two of the last 10 games that Buffalo was favored on the road.
Looking Deeper: Buffalo has let their opponent score 20+ in the last four of these games. - Trend: The under has hit in two of the three games when Josh Allen is a road favorite of 10+.
Looking Deeper: The two under games had winds of 16 and 17 mph and Thursday's game will be in a dome.
In short, the over-under in the Bills and Lions game may be high - a touchdown more than the next highest over-under of the week - but in calm conditions, comes scoring from the Bills. The Lions have been scoring relentlessly as well - scoring 27+ in three of their last four.
In other words, betting trends may be showing the under, but looking deeper shows the over may be the play.
Betting the Over?
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Michael has been writing about sports for over a decade and his focus on NFL betting action has followed suit. As a Baltimore Ravens fan, he has been heavily invested in the AFC North since the turn of the century. When he is not writing about football, you can find him on the beach, in a casino, or at a bowling alley.