- Patrick Mahomes is favored to lead the NFL in passing yards at +450 odds.
- There are +750 odds for Joe Burrow to lead the league in passing yards.
- Kirk Cousins has +1200 odds to lead in pass yards.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – After leading the NFL in passing yards last season (5,250), oddsmakers have not jumped off the Patrick Mahomes train having him favored to lead once more at +450 odds.
2023 Most Passing Yards Odds
- Patrick Mahomes +450
- Justin Herbert +600
- Joe Burrow +750
- Kirk Cousins +1200
While NFL betting sites aren’t counting out Mahomes, and rightfully so, his situation in the wide receiver room outside of Travis Kelce has gotten significantly worse. The Chiefs lost both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman to free agency. Both accounted for a good chunk of Mahomes passing yards last season, 1,230 yards to be exact.
That said, it’s never good advice to fade Mahomes in these situations, but there is certainly more value being offered not far down the odds board.
Although Justin Herbert has the second shortest odds at +600, he could have the toughest road to achieve this. That comes as the LA Chargers receiving duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are coming off of a slumped and injury-plagued season.
Their slumps caused Herbert to drop in passing yards by almost 300 yards from the season prior. With neither of them getting any younger and the receiving room being thin behind them, Herbert should not be trusted with where his odds are.
Some of the highest value is coming on Joe Burrow’s +750 odds and for several reasons. He’s amassed 4,400 passing yards in each of his last two seasons and has produced two 1,000+ yard receivers for the Cincinnati Bengals in those seasons as well (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins).
Both Chase and Higgins continue to improve and prove themselves as a top WR duo in the NFL, which strengthens Burrow’s case to lead the league in yards even more.
There is also uncertainty surrounding Joe Mixon and his availability at the start of the season due to his misdemeanor aggravated menacing charge, which could potentially be refiled. If Mixon does miss some time to start the season, it would force Burrow to rack up even more passing yards.
Despite it being easy for many to bash on Kirk Cousins, he still has arguably the best receiver in the NFL today running routes for him in Justin Jefferson. Cousins finished fourth in total passing yards last season (4,547) and only played half the year with T.J. Hockenson after the Minnesota Vikings traded for him.
Cousins will also benefit from upgrades to their WR2 slot by drafting Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn is also poised for a career season after being a trusted long ball target. At +1200 odds to lead the NFL in passing yards, there is definitely room to sprinkle some action here.
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Samuel has been writing professionally for 4 years. He comes from a sports writing background where he enjoys writing mostly about basketball and football both professional and collegiate. He is a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in Editing, Writing and Media with a minor in Communications. During his free time, you can find him watching or playing sports as well as playing videogames and listening to music.