- The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total in Buffalo Bills games has gone over in four straight games.
- The Bills are 3-5 as a home favorite this season.
BUFFALO, N.Y. – The Bills and Bengals each narrowly escaped their respective Wild Card round matchups. The Bills open as a 5-point favorite over the Bengals (+185) in a game that expects a lot of offense.
The explosive offenses and dominant defenses present a projected point total of 48.0 (-110).
Limiting Turnovers
For the Bills to cover the 5.0-point spread or even just win (-225), they must limit their turnovers.
The Buffalo Bills rank 30 in the NFL in turnovers this season, only the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts had more. Although Josh Allen may appear as superman, turnovers have been his kryptonite as he led the league in interceptions this season with 16.
Turnovers almost cost them their season against the Dolphins, as Josh Allen gave up two interceptions and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown in the 34-31 victory.
Josh Allen made up for his three turnovers with 352 passing yards and three touchdowns, but the Bills will not beat the Bengals if Allen replicates this performance.
The Bengals (+180) are tied for the fifth best turnover margin in the NFL. They are top ten in takeaways and have the fourth lowest turnovers in the NFL.
The Bills can cover the 5-point spread so long as they limit their turnovers, which they have struggled to do all season.
Run The Ball Effectively
The key for the Bengals to beat the Bills is to establish the run game. They are a pass-dominant team and rank 29 in the NFL in rushing yards this season.
This will be difficult for the Bengals who may be without two star offensive lineman – Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa – who are both week-to-week with injuries. The Bengals already lost La’el Collins for the season in Week 16 and now will be potentially without their top three lineman in the biggest game of the season.
These injuries undoubtably had an impact on the 5.5 point spread in favor of Buffalo. Overcoming crucial injuries will be difficult, but the Bengals are facing a Bills defense that was exploited by Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins last week.
Over/Under 48 (-110)
The over/under in the Bills Bengals AFC Divisional round matchup is set at 48.0. In their last 5 games, the over is 3-2 in Bengals games and 4-1 in Bills games.
The Bengals are averaging 26 points per game across that stretch while the Bills average 31.2. Including the postseason, Bills’ overs are 6-10 and Bengals’ overs are 6-9 this season.
These numbers are surprising considering that these two teams possess top offenses in the NFL. The high number of unders this season comes from their excellent defenses. The Bills are second in the NFL in points allowed this season while the Bengals are seventh.
They’ve each given up 30 or more points only twice this season.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are going to have to light up the scoreboard on Sunday afternoon to keep up with the Bills top-2 scoring offense. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. EST.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Under 48.0 (-110)
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Zach is currently a student enrolled at Florida State University. He is majoring in Writing, Editing, and Media with a minor in Communication. He has a passion for sports writing and most enjoys writing about football and baseball both professional and collegiate. During his free time, you can find playing team sports, watching games, or playing DFS. Still searching for his first Fantasy Football Championship, he has been the runner-up four years in a row.