AFC Wild Card Betting: Christian Kirk Player Props

• Christian Kirk sits at -114 to go over his prop of 57.5 receiving yards and -157 for 5+ receptions
• Kirk torched the Chargers in week 3 with 6 receptions, 72 yards and a touchdown
• The Chargers’ defense has been stout in the last 5 games

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Jaguars return to the playoffs after a 5-year drought to face the Los Angeles Chargers who they beat handily back in week 3, 38-10.

NFL sportsbooks have created props for breakout wide receiver Christian Kirk ahead of the game, where he will look to replicate the success he enjoyed in the two teams’ previous meeting.

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards and Receptions

Kirk comes into the game going over his receiving prop of 57.5 yards in just 2 out of his last 5 games and his receptions line of 4.5 (-157) in 3 of his last 5, however, a closer look at these games reveals important trends.

• In the two games where Kirk fell short of both his reception and yardage props, he played against the Texans and the Jets. These games can be seen as outliers because
• The Jaguars rested their starters against the Texans for much of the second half, with QB Trevor Lawrence playing only 70% of his team’s snaps after going up 28-0 to start the third quarter
• The Jets game similarly presented issues-mainly in the form of wind and rain that hampered Lawrence and Kirk as a result

If we discount these two games, Kirk has gone over (-114) his 57.5 receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, and snagged 5 or more receptions (-157) in 7 of those 10.

Chargers Defense: Scary or Streaky?

The Chargers’ defense has been on a tear to end the season, allowing 200 passing yards just once in their last 5 games. Yet, a deeper look into the opposing quarterbacks should give Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence betters some relief.

In those 4 games where they allowed under 200 yards they faced: Baker Mayfield, Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, and Tua Tagovailoa. Aside from Tua and Tannehill, the latter of which suffered an injury during the game, none of these QBs were their teams’ starters coming into the season.

Compare this to the Chargers’ defense at the start of the year: where they let up 230 or more yards in each of the first five games, including 262 yards against Trevor Lawrence during week 3. Other quarterbacks faced in this stretch were: Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Davis Mills, and Jacoby Brissett.

So, while scary on paper, Christian Kirk bettors can find some value in both of his Jags receiving props against a defense that is streaky at times, and came off allowing 283 yards and 3 touchdowns against Russell Wilson to close out the season.