- Past NFL betting trends suggest the Tennessee Titans may have trouble scoring against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- While the Jags are not dominant as six-point home favorites, their defense has proven elite in these scenarios.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – In a six-point spread that favors the Jacksonville Jaguars, the late Saturday NFL game might not be the best for viewers.
Despite the AFC South division title on the line for the Jags (-145) and Tennessee Titans (+115), the 40-point spread for the game projects a 23-17 game in favor of the home team.
| Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans +6.0 (-110) | 225 | O40.0 (-110) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars -6.0 (-110) | -275 | U40.0 (-110) |
But here’s the thing – Jacksonville is not normally a six-point favorite at home. In fact, their last 10 games in this matter date back to 2010, to where they are 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. Having lost four of their last six straight up, a touchdown favorite status is historically bad for Jacksonville.
Trust The Jags Defense
But the one silver lining is the defense. In these games, the Jags have shown their ability to keep their opponents down. Over the last nine games, the Jags defense has only allowed one opponent to score 17 or more.
Opponents Score Vs Jags As 6+ Point Favorite
- 0-10 Points - 3
- 11-16 Points - 5
- 17+ Points – 1
Projected at 14.5 points and the over heavily favored (-145), those betting the Titans under can find value on the under (+110). As the Titans are also slightly favored to score over 1.5 touchdowns (-135), betting on any anytime touchdown from a Titans player seems impossible outside of Derrick Henry.
Focusing on the Titans, they have been a road underdog of six or more three times a season every year since 2020. In those eight played games, they are 4-4 SU (on a three-game losing streak)
However, the biggest trend to focus on is the Titans defense in those games. Allowing 20 or more in six of those games, they have even allowed four opponents to break 40. Context does matter as these nine games came from some staunch QBs (Patrick Mahomes x2, Lamar Jackson x2, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Mac Jones).
With the NFL betting sites projecting the Jaguars to score 23.5, past trends are certainly showing a low scoring Titans loss.
Are you betting the Titans under?
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Michael has been writing about sports for over a decade and his focus on NFL betting action has followed suit. As a Baltimore Ravens fan, he has been heavily invested in the AFC North since the turn of the century. When he is not writing about football, you can find him on the beach, in a casino, or at a bowling alley.