Despite QB Disparity, Falcons 3-Point Underdogs to Chargers

  • The Atlanta Falcons are three-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert has a passing yards O/U more than 100 yards higher than his Falcons counterpart.
  • Herbert is expected to throw more than 1.5 times as many passes as Falcons QB Marcus Mariota.

ATLANTA - The Atlanta Falcons host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and there’s an enormous gap between expectations for Chargers QB Justin Herbert, and those for Falcons QB Marcus Mariota.

Despite this huge gap, the Falcons are only three-point home underdogs on the spread, with shading going in their direction.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

  • Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-105)
  • Atlanta Falcons +3.0 (-115)

The Falcons are 3-1 against the spread at home this season.

The Chargers have not failed to cover the spread in any road game so far this season, with a 3-0 ATS road record.

The road team has covered four out of the last five times these teams have played, and the underdog has also covered four out of the last five times they’ve faced off.

All of that said, the discrepancy between QB expectations for Justin Herbert and Marcus Mariota could not be more stark.

Total Passing Yards - Justin Herbert

  • Over 282.5 +105
  • Under 282.5 +105

Total Passing Yards - Marcus Mariota

  • Over 179.5 +110
  • Under 179.5 -145

Herbert has a passing yards O/U set 103 yards higher than Mariota’s, and the markets judge him as more likely to hit it than Mariota is to hit his.

Herbert has zero games this season in which he threw for 100 yards more than his opposite number under center.

However, he does have two games in which he threw for 90+ yards more than the opposing QB – a 24-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and a 34-24 victory over the Houston Texans.

He’s thrown for more than 282.5 passing yards four times this season, and less than 282.5 passing yards three times.

Mariota, meanwhile, has gone under 179.5 passing yards four times this season, with all four coming in his last five games played.

Total Passing Attempts - Justin Herbert

  • Over 38.5 -120
  • Under 38.5 -110

Total Passing Attempts - Marcus Mariota

  • Over 24.5 EVEN
  • Under 24.5 -130

The Falcons simply don’t rely on Mariota the way the Chargers do on Herbert, and this can be seen in their pass attempts odds.

Mariota has gone over 24.5 attempts in half of his games played, but barely. He has one game with 25 attempts, one with 26, and one with 28.

Herbert, on the other hand, has no games with less than 34 attempts – which is more than Mariota’s highest attempt total on the season.

In fact, Herbert has gone over 38.5 passing attempts in all but two of his games this season – a true workhorse if there ever was one.

The Falcons host the Chargers on Sunday, with kickoff planned for 1 p.m. ET.

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