Can Baker Mayfield Surpass Season Betting Prop Expectations?

  • Baker Mayfield is favored to throw over 24.5 touchdowns in 2020 at -150 odds.
  • The Cleveland Browns offense supports the over in Mayfield’s player prop bets.

CLEVELAND, Ohio — After the 2019 season Baker Mayfield had, there is nowhere to go but up for the soon to be a third-year quarterback.

He regressed in almost every category from the 2018 season to the 2019 season going from 27 touchdowns to 22, 14 interceptions to 21, and 25 sacks to 40 sacks.

His completion rating also dropped from 63.8% to 59.4% as well as his QB rating from 93.7 to 78.8.

While Baker Mayfield is still trying to collect his thoughts after a disappointing outing in 2019, NFL sportsbooks have already set the bar for him.

While not impossible, winning the NFL MVP in 2020 (+2800) which is shorter than some notable players like Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliot, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.

Mayfield's season over/unders is set as well. For passing touchdowns, it is set at 24.5 with the over favored at -150 (under, +115). For passing yards, it is set at 3899.5 with the over favored at -120 (under, -110).

The Cleveland Browns have the talent to surround Mayfield for him to thrive.

In terms of his regular-season touchdown over/under, there is no reason that he should not hit over 24.5 touchdowns with ease. He has a receiving group of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry as well as a tight end core of newly acquired Austin Hooper and David Njoku, all of who are endzone threats.

There are other quarterbacks in the league who could hit over 24.5 passing touchdowns that don’t have a lethal receiving group.

Similar to the regular season touchdown over/under, if Mayfield wants to redeem himself, he needs to throw over the 3899.5-yard mark.

In addition to his deep receiving group, he has a pair of receiving running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who combined for 563 receiving yards in 2019 – even though Hunt only played eight games.

If he does come out and prove his doubters wrong, Mayfield could more than likely hop over the 3899.5-yard mark.

One important factor that is going to be a make it or break it for Mayfield is the play of the offensive line.

Granted, last year the line allowed for 40 sacks but the Browns have revamped their offensive line this year.

They added rookie Jedrick Wills with the 10th overall pick in the draft and also signed Jack Conklin from the Tennessee Titans.

Baker Mayfield’s +2800 MVP odds might seem like a risky NFL futures bet to take, but the weapons make it more of a possibility than many are expecting. At the very least, taking the over on some of Baker Mayfield’s season prop bets may be a wise investment for NFL bettors.

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