- Brock Purdy sits at -114 odds to go under his pass yards prop of 214.5.
- Brock Purdy has a passing yards range of 151-200 set at +250 odds.
- Inclement weather figures to slow the pace of play in the game.
SAN FRANCISCO – The heavily favorited 49ers (-10) host the NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks in a likely windy and rainy game for the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Reports of inclement weather throughout the week makes for solid value betting under on props set by NFL sportsbooks for Brock Purdy, such as a pass yards prop of 214.5 (-114) and a Bovada passing yards range of 151-200 (+250).
Purdy is Impressive, But Relies on Efficiency
While Brock Purdy has produced admirably throughout his time as a starter for the 49ers, wind gusts reporting to be up to 40 mph at some points and scattered rain showers should slow the rookie down in this game.
This year Purdy has enjoyed a very strong 8.1 yards per attempt on the season, tying the likes of Patrick Mahomes. However, unlike Mahomes, Purdy has averaged a modest 218 yards per game since week 13.
With weather studies showing that passing yards decline an average of 45 yards per game when raining and/or windy, this places Purdy right in the sweet spot for his 151-200 passing yards range (+250) by bringing his average down to 173 yards.
This of course also bodes well for his passing yards prop of 214.5, which has a solid value of -114 for the under. Even in the favorable conditions Purdy has played in as a starter, he managed to go under this prop in 3 out of his 6 games.
This also includes a very narrow miss against the Seahawks with 217 yards.
With the expectation that the 10-point favorite 49ers will adopt a run-heavy gameplan in a weather-affected game, Purdy’s passing props should be attractive for bettors willing to wager on either a 49-yard range of 151-200 (+250) or a generally underwhelming game from the rookie QB at under 214.5 pass yards (-114).
Brock Purdy under 214.5 passing yards (-114)
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Jeremias is a lifelong Jaguars fan that began following football closely in 2013. He is a current Florida State University student with a double major in Media/Communication Studies and Editing, Writing, and Media. In his free time, you can find him writing, researching, betting, and watching all things NFL, NBA, and NHL related.